reports/eval_s2_27b.md
| 1 | # Evaluation — checkpoints/s2_27b/best |
| 2 | |
| 3 | base: `/root/models/Qwen3.8-27B` · temperature: yes · max_seq_len 1024 |
| 4 | |
| 5 | ## Acceptance (DESIGN §8.3, main = test_set_30k) |
| 6 | |
| 7 | **all rows** |
| 8 | |
| 9 | | metric | target | value | B0 | pass | |
| 10 | |---|---|---|---|---| |
| 11 | | noul_auroc | >= 0.95 | 0.9961 | 0.8763 | ✅ | |
| 12 | | noul_brier_soft | <= 0.1 | 0.0013 | 0.0628 | ✅ | |
| 13 | | choice_top1 | >= 0.9 | 0.9034 | 0.5814 | ✅ | |
| 14 | | score_mae_expected | <= 0.35 | 0.0976 | 0.8420 | ✅ | |
| 15 | | kl | <= 0.15 | 0.0186 | 0.4296 | ✅ | |
| 16 | | ece | <= 0.03 | 0.0009 | 0.0501 | ✅ | |
| 17 | | ood KL ratio (ood/test_set_30k) | <= 2.0 | 5.620 | — | ❌ | |
| 18 | |
| 19 | **excluding yuri_v1 exact-uniform placeholders (D1)** |
| 20 | |
| 21 | | metric | target | value | B0 | pass | |
| 22 | |---|---|---|---|---| |
| 23 | | noul_auroc | >= 0.95 | 0.9961 | 0.8763 | ✅ | |
| 24 | | noul_brier_soft | <= 0.1 | 0.0016 | 0.0552 | ✅ | |
| 25 | | choice_top1 | >= 0.9 | 0.9034 | 0.5814 | ✅ | |
| 26 | | score_mae_expected | <= 0.35 | 0.0976 | 0.8420 | ✅ | |
| 27 | | kl | <= 0.15 | 0.0201 | 0.4411 | ✅ | |
| 28 | | ece | <= 0.03 | 0.0013 | 0.0307 | ✅ | |
| 29 | | ood KL ratio (ood/test_set_30k) | <= 2.0 | 5.197 | — | ❌ | |
| 30 | |
| 31 | ## test_set_30k |
| 32 | |
| 33 | all rows: `n=29955 · kl=0.0186 · js=0.0048 · top1=0.9215 · ece=0.0009 · mce=0.0030 · noul_auroc=0.9961 · noul_brier_soft=0.0013 · noul_brier_hard=0.0741 · score_mae_expected=0.0976 · score_rps=0.0077 · choice_top1=0.9034 · choice_kl=0.0365` |
| 34 | |
| 35 | excluding yuri_v1 placeholders (2260 rows): `n=27695 · kl=0.0201 · js=0.0052 · top1=0.9215 · ece=0.0013 · mce=0.0030 · noul_auroc=0.9961 · noul_brier_soft=0.0016 · noul_brier_hard=0.0741 · score_mae_expected=0.0976 · score_rps=0.0077 · choice_top1=0.9034 · choice_kl=0.0365` |
| 36 | |
| 37 | throughput: 8687 tok/s · 81.5 rows/s |
| 38 | |
| 39 | ### test_set_30k by kind |
| 40 | |
| 41 | | kind | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 42 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 43 | | choice | 9199 | 0.036 | 0.903 | 0.003 | — | — | — | 0.903 | |
| 44 | | noul | 12229 | 0.003 | 0.965 | 0.002 | 0.996 | 0.001 | — | — | |
| 45 | | score | 8527 | 0.021 | 0.891 | 0.003 | — | — | 0.098 | — | |
| 46 | |
| 47 | ### test_set_30k by source × kind |
| 48 | |
| 49 | | source | kind | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 50 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 51 | | openjev_v2 | choice | 887 | 0.146 | 0.888 | 0.022 | — | — | — | 0.888 | |
| 52 | | openjev_v2 | noul | 1432 | 0.003 | 0.999 | 0.002 | 1.000 | 0.001 | — | — | |
| 53 | | yuri_v1 | noul | 2260 | 0.000 | — | 0.003 | — | 0.000 | — | — | |
| 54 | | yuri_v3 | choice | 8312 | 0.025 | 0.905 | 0.002 | — | — | — | 0.905 | |
| 55 | | yuri_v3 | noul | 8537 | 0.004 | 0.959 | 0.001 | 0.995 | 0.002 | — | — | |
| 56 | | yuri_v3 | score | 8527 | 0.021 | 0.891 | 0.003 | — | — | 0.098 | — | |
| 57 | |
| 58 | ### test_set_30k by family |
| 59 | |
| 60 | | family | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 61 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 62 | | agent | 2583 | 0.016 | 0.919 | 0.002 | 0.995 | 0.002 | 0.099 | 0.894 | |
| 63 | | biology | 1654 | 0.016 | 0.913 | 0.004 | 0.998 | 0.002 | 0.124 | 0.911 | |
| 64 | | business | 2352 | 0.016 | 0.939 | 0.003 | 0.998 | 0.001 | 0.071 | 0.921 | |
| 65 | | chemistry | 1333 | 0.013 | 0.942 | 0.003 | 0.998 | 0.002 | 0.088 | 0.948 | |
| 66 | | genomics | 1914 | 0.018 | 0.918 | 0.005 | 0.993 | 0.002 | 0.098 | 0.914 | |
| 67 | | knowledge | 4807 | 0.010 | 0.910 | 0.002 | 0.990 | 0.001 | 0.109 | 0.906 | |
| 68 | | medical | 2120 | 0.016 | 0.920 | 0.006 | 0.995 | 0.002 | 0.078 | 0.882 | |
| 69 | | openjev | 2319 | 0.058 | 0.958 | 0.009 | 1.000 | 0.001 | — | 0.888 | |
| 70 | | physics | 1656 | 0.016 | 0.909 | 0.003 | 0.995 | 0.001 | 0.097 | 0.906 | |
| 71 | | science | 1667 | 0.017 | 0.907 | 0.005 | 0.992 | 0.001 | 0.115 | 0.913 | |
| 72 | | spatial | 1647 | 0.017 | 0.913 | 0.005 | 0.991 | 0.002 | 0.094 | 0.882 | |
| 73 | | structured | 1668 | 0.018 | 0.909 | 0.003 | 0.989 | 0.003 | 0.123 | 0.886 | |
| 74 | | technical | 2581 | 0.018 | 0.924 | 0.004 | 0.995 | 0.002 | 0.074 | 0.894 | |
| 75 | | theology | 1654 | 0.016 | 0.910 | 0.004 | 0.996 | 0.002 | 0.119 | 0.926 | |
| 76 | |
| 77 | ## test |
| 78 | |
| 79 | all rows: `n=14261 · kl=0.0170 · js=0.0044 · top1=0.9231 · ece=0.0022 · mce=0.0107 · noul_auroc=0.9972 · noul_brier_soft=0.0009 · noul_brier_hard=0.0627 · score_mae_expected=0.0966 · score_rps=0.0076 · choice_top1=0.8967 · choice_kl=0.0434` |
| 80 | |
| 81 | excluding yuri_v1 placeholders (2951 rows): `n=11310 · kl=0.0214 · js=0.0056 · top1=0.9231 · ece=0.0019 · mce=0.0107 · noul_auroc=0.9972 · noul_brier_soft=0.0014 · noul_brier_hard=0.0627 · score_mae_expected=0.0966 · score_rps=0.0076 · choice_top1=0.8967 · choice_kl=0.0434` |
| 82 | |
| 83 | throughput: 8852 tok/s · 68.9 rows/s |
| 84 | |
| 85 | ### test by kind |
| 86 | |
| 87 | | kind | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 88 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 89 | | choice | 3620 | 0.043 | 0.897 | 0.005 | — | — | — | 0.897 | |
| 90 | | noul | 7298 | 0.002 | 0.971 | 0.003 | 0.997 | 0.001 | — | — | |
| 91 | | score | 3343 | 0.021 | 0.889 | 0.002 | — | — | 0.097 | — | |
| 92 | |
| 93 | ### test by source × kind |
| 94 | |
| 95 | | source | kind | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 96 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 97 | | openjev_v2 | choice | 457 | 0.172 | 0.875 | 0.018 | — | — | — | 0.875 | |
| 98 | | openjev_v2 | noul | 1139 | 0.003 | 0.998 | 0.002 | 1.000 | 0.001 | — | — | |
| 99 | | yuri_v1 | noul | 2951 | 0.000 | — | 0.004 | — | 0.000 | — | — | |
| 100 | | yuri_v3 | choice | 3163 | 0.025 | 0.900 | 0.005 | — | — | — | 0.900 | |
| 101 | | yuri_v3 | noul | 3208 | 0.004 | 0.962 | 0.002 | 0.995 | 0.002 | — | — | |
| 102 | | yuri_v3 | score | 3343 | 0.021 | 0.889 | 0.002 | — | — | 0.097 | — | |
| 103 | |
| 104 | ## ood |
| 105 | |
| 106 | all rows: `n=13058 · kl=0.1043 · js=0.0266 · top1=0.9419 · ece=0.0067 · mce=0.2267 · noul_auroc=0.9964 · noul_brier_soft=0.0207 · noul_brier_hard=0.0207 · score_mae_expected=0.5168 · score_rps=0.3693 · choice_top1=0.8593 · choice_kl=0.1875` |
| 107 | |
| 108 | excluding yuri_v1 placeholders (0 rows): `n=13058 · kl=0.1043 · js=0.0266 · top1=0.9419 · ece=0.0067 · mce=0.2267 · noul_auroc=0.9964 · noul_brier_soft=0.0207 · noul_brier_hard=0.0207 · score_mae_expected=0.5168 · score_rps=0.3693 · choice_top1=0.8593 · choice_kl=0.1875` |
| 109 | |
| 110 | throughput: 9340 tok/s · 35.2 rows/s |
| 111 | |
| 112 | ### ood by kind |
| 113 | |
| 114 | | kind | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 115 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 116 | | choice | 3219 | 0.187 | 0.859 | 0.023 | — | — | — | 0.859 | |
| 117 | | noul | 9767 | 0.071 | 0.972 | 0.005 | 0.996 | 0.021 | — | — | |
| 118 | | score | 72 | 0.884 | 0.597 | 0.094 | — | — | 0.517 | — | |
| 119 | |
| 120 | ### ood by source × kind |
| 121 | |
| 122 | | source | kind | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 123 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 124 | | openjev_v2 | choice | 3219 | 0.187 | 0.859 | 0.023 | — | — | — | 0.859 | |
| 125 | | openjev_v2 | noul | 9767 | 0.071 | 0.972 | 0.005 | 0.996 | 0.021 | — | — | |
| 126 | | openjev_v2 | score | 72 | 0.884 | 0.597 | 0.094 | — | — | 0.517 | — | |
| 127 | |
| 128 | ## validation |
| 129 | |
| 130 | all rows: `n=14111 · kl=0.0170 · js=0.0045 · top1=0.9261 · ece=0.0020 · mce=0.0074 · noul_auroc=0.9962 · noul_brier_soft=0.0012 · noul_brier_hard=0.0636 · score_mae_expected=0.0970 · score_rps=0.0076 · choice_top1=0.9094 · choice_kl=0.0416` |
| 131 | |
| 132 | excluding yuri_v1 placeholders (2920 rows): `n=11191 · kl=0.0214 · js=0.0057 · top1=0.9261 · ece=0.0016 · mce=0.0074 · noul_auroc=0.9962 · noul_brier_soft=0.0020 · noul_brier_hard=0.0636 · score_mae_expected=0.0970 · score_rps=0.0076 · choice_top1=0.9094 · choice_kl=0.0416` |
| 133 | |
| 134 | throughput: 8853 tok/s · 68.7 rows/s |
| 135 | |
| 136 | ### validation by kind |
| 137 | |
| 138 | | kind | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 139 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 140 | | choice | 3592 | 0.042 | 0.909 | 0.003 | — | — | — | 0.909 | |
| 141 | | noul | 7318 | 0.003 | 0.967 | 0.002 | 0.996 | 0.001 | — | — | |
| 142 | | score | 3201 | 0.021 | 0.888 | 0.002 | — | — | 0.097 | — | |
| 143 | |
| 144 | ### validation by source × kind |
| 145 | |
| 146 | | source | kind | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 147 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 148 | | openjev_v2 | choice | 463 | 0.151 | 0.886 | 0.028 | — | — | — | 0.886 | |
| 149 | | openjev_v2 | noul | 1167 | 0.009 | 0.995 | 0.003 | 1.000 | 0.003 | — | — | |
| 150 | | yuri_v1 | noul | 2920 | 0.000 | — | 0.003 | — | 0.000 | — | — | |
| 151 | | yuri_v3 | choice | 3129 | 0.026 | 0.913 | 0.004 | — | — | — | 0.913 | |
| 152 | | yuri_v3 | noul | 3231 | 0.004 | 0.957 | 0.001 | 0.994 | 0.002 | — | — | |
| 153 | | yuri_v3 | score | 3201 | 0.021 | 0.888 | 0.002 | — | — | 0.097 | — | |
| 154 | |
| 155 | ## Choice permutation consistency |
| 156 | |
| 157 | `{"n_rows": 1000, "mean_max_abs_diff": 0.02205398865044117, "p90_max_abs_diff": 0.05050674080848694, "top1_flip_rate": 0.02925}` |
| 158 | |