reports/eval_s2_9b.md
| 1 | # Evaluation — checkpoints/s2_9b_cooldown/best |
| 2 | |
| 3 | base: `/root/models/Qwen3.5-9B` · temperature: yes · max_seq_len 1024 |
| 4 | |
| 5 | ## Acceptance (DESIGN §8.3, main = test_set_30k) |
| 6 | |
| 7 | **all rows** |
| 8 | |
| 9 | | metric | target | value | B0 | pass | |
| 10 | |---|---|---|---|---| |
| 11 | | noul_auroc | >= 0.95 | 0.9938 | 0.8236 | ✅ | |
| 12 | | noul_brier_soft | <= 0.1 | 0.0022 | 0.0960 | ✅ | |
| 13 | | choice_top1 | >= 0.9 | 0.8836 | 0.5323 | ❌ | |
| 14 | | score_mae_expected | <= 0.35 | 0.1187 | 1.1297 | ✅ | |
| 15 | | kl | <= 0.15 | 0.0276 | 0.5100 | ✅ | |
| 16 | | ece | <= 0.03 | 0.0014 | 0.0942 | ✅ | |
| 17 | | ood KL ratio (ood/test_set_30k) | <= 2.0 | 7.526 | — | ❌ | |
| 18 | |
| 19 | **excluding yuri_v1 exact-uniform placeholders (D1)** |
| 20 | |
| 21 | | metric | target | value | B0 | pass | |
| 22 | |---|---|---|---|---| |
| 23 | | noul_auroc | >= 0.95 | 0.9938 | nan | ✅ | |
| 24 | | noul_brier_soft | <= 0.1 | 0.0026 | nan | ✅ | |
| 25 | | choice_top1 | >= 0.9 | 0.8836 | nan | ❌ | |
| 26 | | score_mae_expected | <= 0.35 | 0.1187 | nan | ✅ | |
| 27 | | kl | <= 0.15 | 0.0299 | nan | ✅ | |
| 28 | | ece | <= 0.03 | 0.0016 | nan | ✅ | |
| 29 | | ood KL ratio (ood/test_set_30k) | <= 2.0 | 6.966 | — | ❌ | |
| 30 | |
| 31 | ## test_set_30k |
| 32 | |
| 33 | all rows: `n=29955 · kl=0.0276 · js=0.0072 · top1=0.9036 · ece=0.0014 · mce=0.0079 · noul_auroc=0.9938 · noul_brier_soft=0.0022 · noul_brier_hard=0.0761 · score_mae_expected=0.1187 · score_rps=0.0113 · choice_top1=0.8836 · choice_kl=0.0549` |
| 34 | |
| 35 | excluding yuri_v1 placeholders (2260 rows): `n=27695 · kl=0.0299 · js=0.0078 · top1=0.9036 · ece=0.0016 · mce=0.0079 · noul_auroc=0.9938 · noul_brier_soft=0.0026 · noul_brier_hard=0.0761 · score_mae_expected=0.1187 · score_rps=0.0113 · choice_top1=0.8836 · choice_kl=0.0549` |
| 36 | |
| 37 | throughput: 25870 tok/s · 242.6 rows/s |
| 38 | |
| 39 | ### test_set_30k by kind |
| 40 | |
| 41 | | kind | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 42 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 43 | | choice | 9199 | 0.055 | 0.884 | 0.003 | — | — | — | 0.884 | |
| 44 | | noul | 12229 | 0.006 | 0.959 | 0.002 | 0.994 | 0.002 | — | — | |
| 45 | | score | 8527 | 0.030 | 0.861 | 0.002 | — | — | 0.119 | — | |
| 46 | |
| 47 | ### test_set_30k by source × kind |
| 48 | |
| 49 | | source | kind | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 50 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 51 | | openjev_v2 | choice | 887 | 0.220 | 0.858 | 0.018 | — | — | — | 0.858 | |
| 52 | | openjev_v2 | noul | 1432 | 0.010 | 0.997 | 0.004 | 1.000 | 0.003 | — | — | |
| 53 | | yuri_v1 | noul | 2260 | 0.000 | — | 0.009 | — | 0.000 | — | — | |
| 54 | | yuri_v3 | choice | 8312 | 0.037 | 0.886 | 0.002 | — | — | — | 0.886 | |
| 55 | | yuri_v3 | noul | 8537 | 0.006 | 0.953 | 0.001 | 0.992 | 0.003 | — | — | |
| 56 | | yuri_v3 | score | 8527 | 0.030 | 0.861 | 0.002 | — | — | 0.119 | — | |
| 57 | |
| 58 | ### test_set_30k by family |
| 59 | |
| 60 | | family | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 61 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 62 | | agent | 2583 | 0.023 | 0.897 | 0.003 | 0.994 | 0.002 | 0.123 | 0.877 | |
| 63 | | biology | 1654 | 0.024 | 0.898 | 0.004 | 0.998 | 0.002 | 0.148 | 0.902 | |
| 64 | | business | 2352 | 0.022 | 0.930 | 0.003 | 0.997 | 0.002 | 0.089 | 0.904 | |
| 65 | | chemistry | 1333 | 0.020 | 0.931 | 0.005 | 0.997 | 0.002 | 0.113 | 0.946 | |
| 66 | | genomics | 1914 | 0.026 | 0.893 | 0.005 | 0.991 | 0.003 | 0.114 | 0.882 | |
| 67 | | knowledge | 4807 | 0.014 | 0.888 | 0.005 | 0.983 | 0.001 | 0.132 | 0.879 | |
| 68 | | medical | 2120 | 0.024 | 0.901 | 0.004 | 0.994 | 0.002 | 0.092 | 0.865 | |
| 69 | | openjev | 2319 | 0.090 | 0.945 | 0.007 | 1.000 | 0.003 | — | 0.858 | |
| 70 | | physics | 1656 | 0.023 | 0.881 | 0.004 | 0.992 | 0.002 | 0.117 | 0.869 | |
| 71 | | science | 1667 | 0.026 | 0.890 | 0.005 | 0.989 | 0.002 | 0.136 | 0.906 | |
| 72 | | spatial | 1647 | 0.025 | 0.886 | 0.007 | 0.984 | 0.002 | 0.119 | 0.850 | |
| 73 | | structured | 1668 | 0.025 | 0.885 | 0.004 | 0.983 | 0.004 | 0.152 | 0.881 | |
| 74 | | technical | 2581 | 0.025 | 0.918 | 0.004 | 0.993 | 0.002 | 0.089 | 0.878 | |
| 75 | | theology | 1654 | 0.025 | 0.893 | 0.005 | 0.992 | 0.002 | 0.144 | 0.909 | |
| 76 | |
| 77 | ## test |
| 78 | |
| 79 | all rows: `n=14261 · kl=0.0252 · js=0.0065 · top1=0.9076 · ece=0.0029 · mce=0.0243 · noul_auroc=0.9948 · noul_brier_soft=0.0018 · noul_brier_hard=0.0653 · score_mae_expected=0.1165 · score_rps=0.0111 · choice_top1=0.8751 · choice_kl=0.0622` |
| 80 | |
| 81 | excluding yuri_v1 placeholders (2951 rows): `n=11310 · kl=0.0317 · js=0.0082 · top1=0.9076 · ece=0.0014 · mce=0.0243 · noul_auroc=0.9948 · noul_brier_soft=0.0029 · noul_brier_hard=0.0653 · score_mae_expected=0.1165 · score_rps=0.0111 · choice_top1=0.8751 · choice_kl=0.0622` |
| 82 | |
| 83 | throughput: 26259 tok/s · 204.4 rows/s |
| 84 | |
| 85 | ### test by kind |
| 86 | |
| 87 | | kind | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 88 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 89 | | choice | 3620 | 0.062 | 0.875 | 0.004 | — | — | — | 0.875 | |
| 90 | | noul | 7298 | 0.005 | 0.962 | 0.004 | 0.995 | 0.002 | — | — | |
| 91 | | score | 3343 | 0.030 | 0.872 | 0.003 | — | — | 0.116 | — | |
| 92 | |
| 93 | ### test by source × kind |
| 94 | |
| 95 | | source | kind | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 96 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 97 | | openjev_v2 | choice | 457 | 0.238 | 0.860 | 0.018 | — | — | — | 0.860 | |
| 98 | | openjev_v2 | noul | 1139 | 0.012 | 0.994 | 0.004 | 1.000 | 0.004 | — | — | |
| 99 | | yuri_v1 | noul | 2951 | 0.000 | — | 0.009 | — | 0.000 | — | — | |
| 100 | | yuri_v3 | choice | 3163 | 0.037 | 0.877 | 0.003 | — | — | — | 0.877 | |
| 101 | | yuri_v3 | noul | 3208 | 0.006 | 0.951 | 0.003 | 0.992 | 0.003 | — | — | |
| 102 | | yuri_v3 | score | 3343 | 0.030 | 0.872 | 0.003 | — | — | 0.116 | — | |
| 103 | |
| 104 | ## ood |
| 105 | |
| 106 | all rows: `n=13058 · kl=0.2080 · js=0.0454 · top1=0.9164 · ece=0.0288 · mce=0.3191 · noul_auroc=0.9852 · noul_brier_soft=0.0427 · noul_brier_hard=0.0427 · score_mae_expected=0.7871 · score_rps=0.5324 · choice_top1=0.8397 · choice_kl=0.2989` |
| 107 | |
| 108 | excluding yuri_v1 placeholders (0 rows): `n=13058 · kl=0.2080 · js=0.0454 · top1=0.9164 · ece=0.0288 · mce=0.3191 · noul_auroc=0.9852 · noul_brier_soft=0.0427 · noul_brier_hard=0.0427 · score_mae_expected=0.7871 · score_rps=0.5324 · choice_top1=0.8397 · choice_kl=0.2989` |
| 109 | |
| 110 | throughput: 27200 tok/s · 102.6 rows/s |
| 111 | |
| 112 | ### ood by kind |
| 113 | |
| 114 | | kind | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 115 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 116 | | choice | 3219 | 0.299 | 0.840 | 0.044 | — | — | — | 0.840 | |
| 117 | | noul | 9767 | 0.170 | 0.945 | 0.024 | 0.985 | 0.043 | — | — | |
| 118 | | score | 72 | 1.278 | 0.444 | 0.236 | — | — | 0.787 | — | |
| 119 | |
| 120 | ### ood by source × kind |
| 121 | |
| 122 | | source | kind | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 123 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 124 | | openjev_v2 | choice | 3219 | 0.299 | 0.840 | 0.044 | — | — | — | 0.840 | |
| 125 | | openjev_v2 | noul | 9767 | 0.170 | 0.945 | 0.024 | 0.985 | 0.043 | — | — | |
| 126 | | openjev_v2 | score | 72 | 1.278 | 0.444 | 0.236 | — | — | 0.787 | — | |
| 127 | |
| 128 | ## validation |
| 129 | |
| 130 | all rows: `n=14111 · kl=0.0260 · js=0.0067 · top1=0.9111 · ece=0.0030 · mce=0.0097 · noul_auroc=0.9943 · noul_brier_soft=0.0019 · noul_brier_hard=0.0656 · score_mae_expected=0.1196 · score_rps=0.0115 · choice_top1=0.8843 · choice_kl=0.0644` |
| 131 | |
| 132 | excluding yuri_v1 placeholders (2920 rows): `n=11191 · kl=0.0327 · js=0.0084 · top1=0.9111 · ece=0.0020 · mce=0.0097 · noul_auroc=0.9943 · noul_brier_soft=0.0031 · noul_brier_hard=0.0656 · score_mae_expected=0.1196 · score_rps=0.0115 · choice_top1=0.8843 · choice_kl=0.0644` |
| 133 | |
| 134 | throughput: 26303 tok/s · 204.2 rows/s |
| 135 | |
| 136 | ### validation by kind |
| 137 | |
| 138 | | kind | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 139 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 140 | | choice | 3592 | 0.064 | 0.884 | 0.005 | — | — | — | 0.884 | |
| 141 | | noul | 7318 | 0.005 | 0.963 | 0.004 | 0.994 | 0.002 | — | — | |
| 142 | | score | 3201 | 0.030 | 0.870 | 0.003 | — | — | 0.120 | — | |
| 143 | |
| 144 | ### validation by source × kind |
| 145 | |
| 146 | | source | kind | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 147 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 148 | | openjev_v2 | choice | 463 | 0.239 | 0.859 | 0.027 | — | — | — | 0.859 | |
| 149 | | openjev_v2 | noul | 1167 | 0.015 | 0.992 | 0.005 | 1.000 | 0.005 | — | — | |
| 150 | | yuri_v1 | noul | 2920 | 0.000 | — | 0.009 | — | 0.000 | — | — | |
| 151 | | yuri_v3 | choice | 3129 | 0.039 | 0.888 | 0.003 | — | — | — | 0.888 | |
| 152 | | yuri_v3 | noul | 3231 | 0.006 | 0.952 | 0.002 | 0.992 | 0.003 | — | — | |
| 153 | | yuri_v3 | score | 3201 | 0.030 | 0.870 | 0.003 | — | — | 0.120 | — | |
| 154 | |
| 155 | ## Choice permutation consistency |
| 156 | |
| 157 | `{"n_rows": 1000, "mean_max_abs_diff": 0.030732551589608192, "p90_max_abs_diff": 0.06812191009521484, "top1_flip_rate": 0.04675}` |
| 158 | |