reports/review/step0500_27b.md
| 1 | # Evaluation — reports/review/step0500_27b_ckpt |
| 2 | |
| 3 | base: `/root/models/Qwen3.8-27B` · temperature: yes · max_seq_len 1024 |
| 4 | |
| 5 | ## Acceptance (DESIGN §8.3, main = test_set_30k) |
| 6 | |
| 7 | **all rows** |
| 8 | |
| 9 | | metric | target | value | B0 | pass | |
| 10 | |---|---|---|---|---| |
| 11 | | noul_auroc | >= 0.95 | 0.9838 | 0.8763 | ✅ | |
| 12 | | noul_brier_soft | <= 0.1 | 0.0063 | 0.0628 | ✅ | |
| 13 | | choice_top1 | >= 0.9 | 0.8278 | 0.5814 | ❌ | |
| 14 | | score_mae_expected | <= 0.35 | 0.1987 | 0.8420 | ✅ | |
| 15 | | kl | <= 0.15 | 0.0579 | 0.4296 | ✅ | |
| 16 | | ece | <= 0.03 | 0.0032 | 0.0501 | ✅ | |
| 17 | | ood KL ratio (ood/test_set_30k) | <= 2.0 | 2.987 | — | ❌ | |
| 18 | |
| 19 | **excluding yuri_v1 exact-uniform placeholders (D1)** |
| 20 | |
| 21 | | metric | target | value | B0 | pass | |
| 22 | |---|---|---|---|---| |
| 23 | | noul_auroc | >= 0.95 | 0.9838 | 0.8763 | ✅ | |
| 24 | | noul_brier_soft | <= 0.1 | 0.0077 | 0.0552 | ✅ | |
| 25 | | choice_top1 | >= 0.9 | 0.8278 | 0.5814 | ❌ | |
| 26 | | score_mae_expected | <= 0.35 | 0.1987 | 0.8420 | ✅ | |
| 27 | | kl | <= 0.15 | 0.0626 | 0.4411 | ✅ | |
| 28 | | ece | <= 0.03 | 0.0028 | 0.0307 | ✅ | |
| 29 | | ood KL ratio (ood/test_set_30k) | <= 2.0 | 2.763 | — | ❌ | |
| 30 | |
| 31 | ## test_set_30k |
| 32 | |
| 33 | all rows: `n=29955 · kl=0.0579 · js=0.0147 · top1=0.8576 · ece=0.0032 · mce=0.0186 · noul_auroc=0.9838 · noul_brier_soft=0.0063 · noul_brier_hard=0.0877 · score_mae_expected=0.1987 · score_rps=0.0280 · choice_top1=0.8278 · choice_kl=0.1011` |
| 34 | |
| 35 | excluding yuri_v1 placeholders (2260 rows): `n=27695 · kl=0.0626 · js=0.0159 · top1=0.8576 · ece=0.0028 · mce=0.0186 · noul_auroc=0.9838 · noul_brier_soft=0.0077 · noul_brier_hard=0.0877 · score_mae_expected=0.1987 · score_rps=0.0280 · choice_top1=0.8278 · choice_kl=0.1011` |
| 36 | |
| 37 | throughput: 9119 tok/s · 85.5 rows/s |
| 38 | |
| 39 | ### test_set_30k by kind |
| 40 | |
| 41 | | kind | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 42 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 43 | | choice | 9199 | 0.101 | 0.828 | 0.011 | — | — | — | 0.828 | |
| 44 | | noul | 12229 | 0.019 | 0.935 | 0.008 | 0.984 | 0.006 | — | — | |
| 45 | | score | 8527 | 0.067 | 0.800 | 0.007 | — | — | 0.199 | — | |
| 46 | |
| 47 | ### test_set_30k by source × kind |
| 48 | |
| 49 | | source | kind | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 50 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 51 | | openjev_v2 | choice | 887 | 0.369 | 0.788 | 0.045 | — | — | — | 0.788 | |
| 52 | | openjev_v2 | noul | 1432 | 0.084 | 0.969 | 0.020 | 0.996 | 0.023 | — | — | |
| 53 | | yuri_v1 | noul | 2260 | 0.000 | — | 0.009 | — | 0.000 | — | — | |
| 54 | | yuri_v3 | choice | 8312 | 0.072 | 0.832 | 0.008 | — | — | — | 0.832 | |
| 55 | | yuri_v3 | noul | 8537 | 0.013 | 0.930 | 0.011 | 0.985 | 0.005 | — | — | |
| 56 | | yuri_v3 | score | 8527 | 0.067 | 0.800 | 0.007 | — | — | 0.199 | — | |
| 57 | |
| 58 | ### test_set_30k by family |
| 59 | |
| 60 | | family | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 61 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 62 | | agent | 2583 | 0.048 | 0.845 | 0.007 | 0.992 | 0.004 | 0.224 | 0.803 | |
| 63 | | biology | 1654 | 0.046 | 0.855 | 0.008 | 0.992 | 0.006 | 0.208 | 0.848 | |
| 64 | | business | 2352 | 0.048 | 0.882 | 0.009 | 0.991 | 0.003 | 0.150 | 0.839 | |
| 65 | | chemistry | 1333 | 0.046 | 0.887 | 0.009 | 0.992 | 0.005 | 0.194 | 0.904 | |
| 66 | | genomics | 1914 | 0.061 | 0.830 | 0.011 | 0.978 | 0.007 | 0.210 | 0.817 | |
| 67 | | knowledge | 4807 | 0.027 | 0.848 | 0.007 | 0.966 | 0.002 | 0.204 | 0.846 | |
| 68 | | medical | 2120 | 0.051 | 0.866 | 0.008 | 0.989 | 0.005 | 0.154 | 0.789 | |
| 69 | | openjev | 2319 | 0.193 | 0.901 | 0.026 | 0.996 | 0.023 | — | 0.788 | |
| 70 | | physics | 1656 | 0.049 | 0.837 | 0.008 | 0.984 | 0.004 | 0.190 | 0.858 | |
| 71 | | science | 1667 | 0.051 | 0.841 | 0.010 | 0.980 | 0.004 | 0.222 | 0.842 | |
| 72 | | spatial | 1647 | 0.052 | 0.844 | 0.010 | 0.986 | 0.004 | 0.217 | 0.791 | |
| 73 | | structured | 1668 | 0.049 | 0.839 | 0.010 | 0.972 | 0.008 | 0.249 | 0.828 | |
| 74 | | technical | 2581 | 0.054 | 0.872 | 0.008 | 0.991 | 0.005 | 0.158 | 0.824 | |
| 75 | | theology | 1654 | 0.050 | 0.845 | 0.009 | 0.988 | 0.005 | 0.238 | 0.866 | |
| 76 | |
| 77 | ## ood |
| 78 | |
| 79 | all rows: `n=13058 · kl=0.1730 · js=0.0434 · top1=0.9283 · ece=0.0078 · mce=0.2500 · noul_auroc=0.9869 · noul_brier_soft=0.0336 · noul_brier_hard=0.0336 · score_mae_expected=0.6120 · score_rps=0.4686 · choice_top1=0.8472 · choice_kl=0.3079` |
| 80 | |
| 81 | excluding yuri_v1 placeholders (0 rows): `n=13058 · kl=0.1730 · js=0.0434 · top1=0.9283 · ece=0.0078 · mce=0.2500 · noul_auroc=0.9869 · noul_brier_soft=0.0336 · noul_brier_hard=0.0336 · score_mae_expected=0.6120 · score_rps=0.4686 · choice_top1=0.8472 · choice_kl=0.3079` |
| 82 | |
| 83 | throughput: 9422 tok/s · 35.5 rows/s |
| 84 | |
| 85 | ### ood by kind |
| 86 | |
| 87 | | kind | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 88 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 89 | | choice | 3219 | 0.308 | 0.847 | 0.033 | — | — | — | 0.847 | |
| 90 | | noul | 9767 | 0.122 | 0.958 | 0.013 | 0.987 | 0.034 | — | — | |
| 91 | | score | 72 | 1.105 | 0.583 | 0.176 | — | — | 0.612 | — | |
| 92 | |
| 93 | ### ood by source × kind |
| 94 | |
| 95 | | source | kind | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 96 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 97 | | openjev_v2 | choice | 3219 | 0.308 | 0.847 | 0.033 | — | — | — | 0.847 | |
| 98 | | openjev_v2 | noul | 9767 | 0.122 | 0.958 | 0.013 | 0.987 | 0.034 | — | — | |
| 99 | | openjev_v2 | score | 72 | 1.105 | 0.583 | 0.176 | — | — | 0.612 | — | |
| 100 | |
| 101 | ## Choice permutation consistency |
| 102 | |
| 103 | `{"n_rows": 500, "mean_max_abs_diff": 0.06085456162691116, "p90_max_abs_diff": 0.13134749233722687, "top1_flip_rate": 0.086}` |
| 104 | |