reports/review/step2500.md
| 1 | # Evaluation — reports/review/step2500_ckpt |
| 2 | |
| 3 | base: `/root/models/Qwen3.5-9B` · temperature: yes · max_seq_len 1024 |
| 4 | |
| 5 | ## Acceptance (DESIGN §8.3, main = test_set_30k) |
| 6 | |
| 7 | **all rows** |
| 8 | |
| 9 | | metric | target | value | B0 | pass | |
| 10 | |---|---|---|---|---| |
| 11 | | noul_auroc | >= 0.95 | 0.9917 | 0.8236 | ✅ | |
| 12 | | noul_brier_soft | <= 0.1 | 0.0028 | 0.0960 | ✅ | |
| 13 | | choice_top1 | >= 0.9 | 0.8646 | 0.5323 | ❌ | |
| 14 | | score_mae_expected | <= 0.35 | 0.1425 | 1.1297 | ✅ | |
| 15 | | kl | <= 0.15 | 0.0369 | 0.5100 | ✅ | |
| 16 | | ece | <= 0.03 | 0.0041 | 0.0942 | ✅ | |
| 17 | | ood KL ratio (ood/test_set_30k) | <= 2.0 | 6.847 | — | ❌ | |
| 18 | |
| 19 | **excluding yuri_v1 exact-uniform placeholders (D1)** |
| 20 | |
| 21 | | metric | target | value | B0 | pass | |
| 22 | |---|---|---|---|---| |
| 23 | | noul_auroc | >= 0.95 | 0.9917 | nan | ✅ | |
| 24 | | noul_brier_soft | <= 0.1 | 0.0034 | nan | ✅ | |
| 25 | | choice_top1 | >= 0.9 | 0.8646 | nan | ❌ | |
| 26 | | score_mae_expected | <= 0.35 | 0.1425 | nan | ✅ | |
| 27 | | kl | <= 0.15 | 0.0399 | nan | ✅ | |
| 28 | | ece | <= 0.03 | 0.0039 | nan | ✅ | |
| 29 | | ood KL ratio (ood/test_set_30k) | <= 2.0 | 6.335 | — | ❌ | |
| 30 | |
| 31 | ## test_set_30k |
| 32 | |
| 33 | all rows: `n=29955 · kl=0.0369 · js=0.0094 · top1=0.8863 · ece=0.0041 · mce=0.0089 · noul_auroc=0.9917 · noul_brier_soft=0.0028 · noul_brier_hard=0.0793 · score_mae_expected=0.1425 · score_rps=0.0162 · choice_top1=0.8646 · choice_kl=0.0705` |
| 34 | |
| 35 | excluding yuri_v1 placeholders (2260 rows): `n=27695 · kl=0.0399 · js=0.0102 · top1=0.8863 · ece=0.0039 · mce=0.0089 · noul_auroc=0.9917 · noul_brier_soft=0.0034 · noul_brier_hard=0.0793 · score_mae_expected=0.1425 · score_rps=0.0162 · choice_top1=0.8646 · choice_kl=0.0705` |
| 36 | |
| 37 | throughput: 25861 tok/s · 242.5 rows/s |
| 38 | |
| 39 | ### test_set_30k by kind |
| 40 | |
| 41 | | kind | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 42 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 43 | | choice | 9199 | 0.071 | 0.865 | 0.013 | — | — | — | 0.865 | |
| 44 | | noul | 12229 | 0.008 | 0.954 | 0.005 | 0.992 | 0.003 | — | — | |
| 45 | | score | 8527 | 0.042 | 0.832 | 0.008 | — | — | 0.143 | — | |
| 46 | |
| 47 | ### test_set_30k by source × kind |
| 48 | |
| 49 | | source | kind | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 50 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 51 | | openjev_v2 | choice | 887 | 0.248 | 0.854 | 0.027 | — | — | — | 0.854 | |
| 52 | | openjev_v2 | noul | 1432 | 0.022 | 0.994 | 0.004 | 1.000 | 0.005 | — | — | |
| 53 | | yuri_v1 | noul | 2260 | 0.000 | — | 0.010 | — | 0.000 | — | — | |
| 54 | | yuri_v3 | choice | 8312 | 0.052 | 0.866 | 0.014 | — | — | — | 0.866 | |
| 55 | | yuri_v3 | noul | 8537 | 0.008 | 0.947 | 0.005 | 0.990 | 0.003 | — | — | |
| 56 | | yuri_v3 | score | 8527 | 0.042 | 0.832 | 0.008 | — | — | 0.143 | — | |
| 57 | |
| 58 | ### test_set_30k by family |
| 59 | |
| 60 | | family | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 61 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 62 | | agent | 2583 | 0.035 | 0.876 | 0.008 | 0.991 | 0.004 | 0.150 | 0.849 | |
| 63 | | biology | 1654 | 0.032 | 0.876 | 0.010 | 0.997 | 0.003 | 0.186 | 0.881 | |
| 64 | | business | 2352 | 0.031 | 0.908 | 0.006 | 0.995 | 0.002 | 0.104 | 0.863 | |
| 65 | | chemistry | 1333 | 0.028 | 0.919 | 0.011 | 0.995 | 0.003 | 0.131 | 0.939 | |
| 66 | | genomics | 1914 | 0.036 | 0.864 | 0.005 | 0.990 | 0.004 | 0.143 | 0.848 | |
| 67 | | knowledge | 4807 | 0.019 | 0.879 | 0.009 | 0.978 | 0.001 | 0.156 | 0.874 | |
| 68 | | medical | 2120 | 0.034 | 0.882 | 0.007 | 0.994 | 0.003 | 0.116 | 0.844 | |
| 69 | | openjev | 2319 | 0.108 | 0.941 | 0.013 | 1.000 | 0.005 | — | 0.854 | |
| 70 | | physics | 1656 | 0.031 | 0.862 | 0.008 | 0.990 | 0.002 | 0.137 | 0.869 | |
| 71 | | science | 1667 | 0.035 | 0.871 | 0.012 | 0.990 | 0.003 | 0.160 | 0.884 | |
| 72 | | spatial | 1647 | 0.033 | 0.878 | 0.009 | 0.982 | 0.003 | 0.155 | 0.840 | |
| 73 | | structured | 1668 | 0.035 | 0.864 | 0.006 | 0.981 | 0.005 | 0.180 | 0.843 | |
| 74 | | technical | 2581 | 0.034 | 0.901 | 0.008 | 0.992 | 0.003 | 0.110 | 0.853 | |
| 75 | | theology | 1654 | 0.033 | 0.871 | 0.005 | 0.990 | 0.003 | 0.153 | 0.901 | |
| 76 | |
| 77 | ## ood |
| 78 | |
| 79 | all rows: `n=13058 · kl=0.2527 · js=0.0443 · top1=0.9224 · ece=0.0393 · mce=0.1853 · noul_auroc=0.9843 · noul_brier_soft=0.0428 · noul_brier_hard=0.0428 · score_mae_expected=0.8291 · score_rps=0.5762 · choice_top1=0.8537 · choice_kl=0.3757` |
| 80 | |
| 81 | excluding yuri_v1 placeholders (0 rows): `n=13058 · kl=0.2527 · js=0.0443 · top1=0.9224 · ece=0.0393 · mce=0.1853 · noul_auroc=0.9843 · noul_brier_soft=0.0428 · noul_brier_hard=0.0428 · score_mae_expected=0.8291 · score_rps=0.5762 · choice_top1=0.8537 · choice_kl=0.3757` |
| 82 | |
| 83 | throughput: 27227 tok/s · 102.7 rows/s |
| 84 | |
| 85 | ### ood by kind |
| 86 | |
| 87 | | kind | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 88 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 89 | | choice | 3219 | 0.376 | 0.854 | 0.065 | — | — | — | 0.854 | |
| 90 | | noul | 9767 | 0.204 | 0.949 | 0.030 | 0.984 | 0.043 | — | — | |
| 91 | | score | 72 | 1.367 | 0.431 | 0.207 | — | — | 0.829 | — | |
| 92 | |
| 93 | ### ood by source × kind |
| 94 | |
| 95 | | source | kind | n | kl | top1 | ece | noul_auroc | noul_brier_soft | score_mae_expected | choice_top1 | |
| 96 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| 97 | | openjev_v2 | choice | 3219 | 0.376 | 0.854 | 0.065 | — | — | — | 0.854 | |
| 98 | | openjev_v2 | noul | 9767 | 0.204 | 0.949 | 0.030 | 0.984 | 0.043 | — | — | |
| 99 | | openjev_v2 | score | 72 | 1.367 | 0.431 | 0.207 | — | — | 0.829 | — | |
| 100 | |
| 101 | ## Choice permutation consistency |
| 102 | |
| 103 | `{"n_rows": 500, "mean_max_abs_diff": 0.03688684105873108, "p90_max_abs_diff": 0.07897255569696426, "top1_flip_rate": 0.053}` |
| 104 | |